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Since a signal is transmitted along a synapse, on average, with a frequency of about Hz and since its memory capacity is probably less than bytes 1 byte looks like bostrom superintelligence more reasonable estimateit seems that speed rather than memory would be the bottleneck in brain simulations on the neuronal level.
If we instead assume that we can achieve a thousand-fold bostrom superintelligence in our simulation speed as assumed in Moravec's estimate, then that would bring the requirement of speed down, perhaps, one order bostrom superintelligence magnitude below the memory requirement.
Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom, review: 'a hard read'
But if we can optimize bostrom superintelligence three orders of magnitude on speed by simulating neuron aggregates, we will probably be able to cut away at least one order of magnitude of the memory requirement.
Thus the difficulty of building enough memory may be significantly smaller, and is almost bostrom superintelligence not significantly greater, than the difficulty of building a processor that is fast enough. We can therefore focus on speed as the critical parameter on the hardware front.
This paper does not discuss the possibility that quantum phenomena are irreducibly involved in human cognition. Hameroff and Penrose and others have suggested that coherent quantum states may exist in the microtubules, and bostrom superintelligence the brain utilizes these phenomena to perform high-level cognitive feats.
Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom, review: 'a hard read' - Telegraph
The author's opinion is that this is implausible. The controversy surrounding this issue won't be entered into here; it will simply be assumed, throughout this paper, that bostrom superintelligence phenomena are not functionally relevant to high-level brain modelling.
In conclusion we can say that the hardware bostrom superintelligence for human-equivalent artificial intelligence will likely exist before the end of the first quater of the next century, and may be reached as early as A corresponding capacity should be available to leading AI labs within ten years thereafter or sooner if bostrom superintelligence potential of human-level AI and superintelligence is by then better appreciated by funding agencies.
For example, there is some evidence that some limited amount of communication between nerve cells is possible without synaptic transmission.
And we have the regulatory mechanisms consisting neurotransmitters and their sources, receptors and re-uptake channels. While neurotransmitter balances are crucially important for the proper functioning of the human brain, they have bostrom superintelligence insignificant information content compared to the synaptic structure.
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Perhaps a more serious point is that that neurons often have rather complex time-integration properties Koch Whether a specific set of synaptic inputs result in the firing of a neuron depends on their exact timing.
The authors' opinion is that except possibly for a small number of special applications such as auditory stereo perception, the temporal properties of the neurons can easily be accommodated with a time resolution of the bostrom superintelligence on the order of 1 ms. In an unoptimized simulation this would add an order of magnitude to the estimate given above, where bostrom superintelligence assumed a temporal resolution of 10 ms, corresponding to an average firing rate of Hz.
However, the other values on which the estimate was based appear to be too high rather bostrom superintelligence too lowso we should not change the estimate much to allow for possible fine-grained time-integration effects in a neuron's dendritic tree.
Note that bostrom superintelligence if we were to adjust our estimate upward by bostrom superintelligence order of magnitude, this would merely add three to five years to the predicted upper bound on when human-equivalent hardware arrives.
The lower bound, which is based bostrom superintelligence Moravec's estimate, would remain unchanged. Software via the bottom-up approach Superintelligence requires software as well as hardware.
There are several approaches to the software problem, varying in the amount of top-down direction they require.
Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
At the one extreme we have systems like CYC which is bostrom superintelligence very large encyclopedia-like knowledge-base and inference-engine. It has been spoon-fed facts, rules of thumb and heuristics for over a decade by a team of human knowledge enterers. While systems like CYC might be good for certain practical tasks, this hardly seems like an approach that will convince AI-skeptics that superintelligence might well happen in the foreseeable future.
We have to look at paradigms that require less human input, ones bostrom superintelligence make more use of bottom-up methods.
Given sufficient hardware and the right sort of programming, we could make the machines learn in the same way a child does, i. The learning mechanisms used by the brain are currently not completely understood.